‹ Back

Overall Outcome:

 

I anticipate a victory for Labour, likely with an even greater majority than in 1997. But this will not necessarily be because of a higher vote share, but because of a lower turnout as more and more voters have become disenfranchised. The by-elections of 2024 have shown a pattern of a heavy swing to Labour in terms of proportion, but not in number of votes. In some cases, Labour won seats despite losing votes, as Conservative voters abandoned the election completely. The same is highly likely to occur nationwide on July 4th.

 

The Labour Party, despite winning with a clear majority, will almost certainly be heavily factionalised. Issues such as Gaza, the influence of the unions, and the legacy of Momentum and Jeremy Corbyn will rear their head very quicky and never go away. Labour will face more opposition from within its own Party than it does from within the House of Commons.

 

There may be one or two seat gains from smaller parties such as the Greens, Workers Party of Britain, but ultimately these will be negligible to the overall outcome. The Workers Party of Britain, whilst espousing may socialist policies, caters heavily to the Muslim vote. Whilst this can lead to some concentrated support, it alienates the rest of the electorate. The Liberal Democrats will likely gain seats as they have not suffered from the reputation damage that the Conservatives have over the last decade. The SNP will almost certainly lose seats to Labour, which will be more an act of punishment for the SNP than any ideological shift. It is a realistic possibility that similar will happen with Plaid Cymru in Wales, though not to the same degree.

 

The result of the election will largely be determined not by who GAINS the most votes, but by who LOSES the most votes.

 

Reform UK and the Conservatives:

 

Reform UK, the latest venture from Nigel Farage (who has recently taken over officially as leader), is positing itself as the ‘real’ opposition to Labour. In the past year, Reform UK has gone from posing as a ‘third’ Party to posing as an alternative Conservative Party. It has reached a point where the policies and even the people are interchangeable between the two, and Reform UK has become, in essence, the Continuity Conservative Party. There is more genuine difference between factions of the Conservatives than there is between Reform UK and the Conservative Party as a whole.

 

As for the election, it is realistically possible that Reform UK will win seats from the Conservatives, as Tory voters switch to the alternative Tory party, though Reform UK is unlikely to have any kind of success in areas that weren’t already Conservative voting anyway. It is almost certain that post-election, Reform UK will merge with the Conservatives in some way, thus totally defeating all purpose to the existence of the Party as an alternative, as it adopts virtually all of the policies and ideals that it previously broke away from.

 

Farage himself may possibly win a seat in Clacton, but the fundamental problem with Reform UK (just as UKIP) is that the environment that Farage creates politically is one in which nothing gets done without his personal intervention. Therefore, his presence in parliament would likely be detrimental to the Party, rather than constructive, as it would leave the Party itself rudderless.

 

Nationalist Parties/Candidates:

 

This is the part that can be discussed in most detail, considering that the outcomes are directly applicable to the nationalist movement, and we can learn from them. The principal ‘force’ in nationalist politics present at the General Election is the ‘broad’ alliance between the following organisations/Parties:

• UKIP

• English Democrats

• Patriotic Alternative

 

The English Democrats and UKIP formally convened an electoral pact under the branding of the ‘Patriots Alliance’, and Patriotic Alternative provided four activists to stand under the English Democrats manifesto. Without prejudice, it is highly unlikely any of the candidates from this entire broad alliance will do well. The main reason is the lack of any ideological coherence and candidates standing whose known principles are differing or even contradictory to the principles of the party they are standing for. In the immediate term, these kind of election pacts demonstrate unity, but in the medium and long term they damage the credibility of everyone involved.

 

The second force involved is the British Democrats, who became established around a decade ago by a contingent from the BNP. They have principally focussed on local elections but have decided to stand in multiple constituencies this year. It is highly unlikely they will perform any better electorally than at the local elections, as they will suffer from the fact that, in the perception of voters, their platform is extremely similar to Reform UK or the right-wing of the Conservative Party, too similar to warrant voting for.

 

The chances are remote that any of these candidates or parties will win any seats.

 

Plan of Action post-GE:

 

There would be no purpose to any kind of assessment if there was no plan for what the National Rebirth Party would do with that assessment. Considering all the previous points made, the Party will proceed with its five-year plan, which is summarised thus:

 

1. To mobilise and organise pro-active leaders at a town/city/county level who will, in a few years, provide the basis for co-ordinating electoral campaigns in that area. The Party needs to cultivate a strong foundation of Officers who will be able to carry out autonomous activity that works towards the Party objectives.

2. To organise the supply of resources in the form of money, manpower, physical assets and venues. The Party must ensure that any plans and campaigns are properly resourced, which means working to accumulate those resources.

3. To provide public events at which people can engage with the Party, which will enable new people to enter the movement as a whole. Growth of the Party is essential for any kind of success and therefore growth, and the bringing in of new supporters, must be a persistent priority.

 

Something that must be resisted is the urge to switch from a visionary, offensive approach to a defensive one as an era of Labour government begins to creep left-wing principles further into society. All this would achieve is to consume resources and time in a defensive posture as opposed to continuing to advance and grow.

 

The real time results of the GE will be known in only a few weeks, and then and in the days afterwards it will be apparent whether these predictions are accurate.

 

By Alek Yerbury

 

Party Leader